Job Market Paper

• The regional heterogeneous effects of property transactions taxes in England and Wales

  This paper analyses the regional heterogeneous effects of property transaction taxes in the residential housing market in England and Wales. I exploit two sources of variation. Firstly, a single tax rate is applied to transactions in some price bands and jumped at some cutoffs (slab system). After a reform in December 2014, successive bands of the purchase price were taxed at increasing rates, and the discrete jumps were replaced by changes in the slope (slice system). Using a combination of administrative and quasi-administrative data, I estimate how different the effects of both systems were in London and out of London. I find that the slab system destroyed property transactions out of London, but not in London. However, the reform to the slice system mitigated this welfare loss. To explore the mechanisms driving this variation across regions, I build a search and matching model of the ownership market that incorporates bunching. Motivated by descriptive evidence, simulations of the model suggest that sellers' search cost and sellers' transaction gains/costs explain the regional heterogeneity in the response to the tax.

  Presented at:

  • Workshop (scheduled) - Lisbon Urban and Public Economics Workshop (2026)
  • Conference - Royal Economic Society (2025)
  • Conference - Spanish Public Economics Meeting (2025)
  • Conference - Housing Studies Association Conference (2025)
  • Conference - Scottish Economic Society Conference (2025)
  • Seminar - Centre for Competence in Microeconomic Evaluation (2025)
  • Seminar - Pablo de Olavide University (2025)
  • Seminar - University of Granada (2025)
  • Seminar - University of Malaga (2025)
  • Internal Seminar - University of Edinburgh (2024)
  • Workshop - Ph.D. Statistics Day at the University of Edinburgh (2023)

Working Papers

• Crime Responses to Routine Biased Technical Change: Evidence from the US.

  This paper examines the causal effects of routine-biased technological change (RBTC) on crime in the United States during 1980-2000. Using Shift-Share Instrumental Variables that exploit historical cross-commuting-zone differences in industry specialisation, I find that RBTC substantially increased arrest rates: a one standard deviation increase in routine employment share raised total arrests by approximately 19%, with violent crime arrests increasing by 43%. The effects are concentrated in violent crimes-particularly aggravated assault-and substance-abuse-related offences, while property crimes show no significant response. This pattern suggests RBTC operates through an inequality channel rather than unemployment: displaced middle-skill workers experienced wage losses and status decline that manifested in frustration-driven violent behaviour. The crime effects are concentrated among adult men-the demographic group most affected by routine task displacement-with smaller but significant effects among juveniles (intergenerational transmission) and women (drug-related arrests from household spillovers). These findings contribute to the literature on non-labour-market consequences of technological change.

  Presented at:

  • Conference - Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics Conference (2024)
  • Conference - Scottish Economic Society Conference (2024)
  • Conference - Scottish Graduate Program in Economics Conference (2024)
• The Causal Effect of Energy Efficiency on Property Prices (available upon request)
• Did Low-Skilled Men Crowd Low-Skilled Women Out of the UK Labour Market?

  This paper examines the impact of information and communications technologies (ICT) on employment in the UK, focusing on how ICT has polarised job opportunities by skill level and gender. It explores how low-skilled men, displaced from blue-collar jobs, have moved into interpersonal occupations, potentially displacing low-skilled women, mirroring trends observed in the U.S. labour market.

  Presented at:

  • Conference - European Association of Labour Economics Conference (2024)
  • Conference - Labour Economics Meeting (2024)
  • Conference - Annual Southern PhD in Economics Conference (2023)
  • Conference - Scottish Economic Society Conference (2022)
  • Conference - Scottish Graduate Program in Economics Conference (2022)
  • Ph.D. Seminar - University of Edinburgh

Published Research Papers

• Hidden Figures Behind Two-Vehicle Crashes: An Assessment of the Risk and External Costs of Drunk Driving in Spain. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 127, 42-51. Coauthored with Jesús Rodríguez-López and Yolanda Rebollo-Sanz

  This paper estimates the increased risk of crashes caused by drunk drivers in Spain (2.7-3.9 times higher at night) and suggests that fines of €1250 could offset the external costs of drunk driving, which have declined since the introduction of stricter penalties in 2006.